AI is Coming. Is Software Development a Wise Career in 2023?
AI is likely to kill jobs. Yet software developer salaries are increasing.
This means we still have a production line of developers moving through the junior-mid-senior ride.
People who wake up one day having seen those great dev salaries and think I can do that. They may even take the next step and sign up for a code camp or online course. “Learn to code in 6 weeks”, they think they’ll get a $100,000 gig right after.
Then I think we are all worried about the future of our jobs, as AI is clearly coming over the hill
My experience
I know one new mother who is thinking of going to a code camp. They haven’t considered what programming is (they don’t really know anything about the industry), but they’ve seen the high salaries on offer and the fact they can work from home.
Here are the arguments I’m putting to them about why training to be a software developer in 2023 is a poor move.
Tear up that code camp application: Why becoming a software developer in 2023 is a mistake
AI might destroy junior jobs
Remember when AI really hit the scene way back in 2022? The truth is AI is changing coding from being a job for developers to people being AI supervisors.
The market for junior developers could be the hardest it’s ever been as simple development jobs are automated. If there are no more junior jobs in the market how will new coders hone their skills to be “production ready” and become the senior developers of tomorrow?
This is more likely than all coding jobs being automated in the short term, but if junior developers are unlikely to be able to identify issues in ChatGPT code we might as well simply make it part of the product owner’s job to “code” using the AI.
Programming? It’s tough
I should be studying for interviews now. I shouldn’t be writing Medium articles. I should be on LeetCode. I’ve multiple degrees and 10 + years of experience. I need to study.
When you first start in software development there are materials promising that you can learn Python in 24 hours and whatnot.
It isn’t true. You can’t learn programming in that timescale
You might be able to write a simple program in that time, true. “Learn to Code” is a much longer path and involves much more work than a few minutes of coding a day. It takes years.
Still up for the journey?
It’s tougher than that
Once you’re through your coding class, university course, or YouTube marathon you might well score a job.
Well done!
Some get through to FAANG companies, but the numbers say that’s likely not you. You’ll get to a small software dev consultancy that will have a selection of the following “fun” issues:
Expect hardcore hours
Unpaid overtime including weekends
Toxic coworkers
Poor code practices
Bad developer experiences (poor CI, incomplete or broken processes)
Lack of management
Poor benefits
Junior level Colleagues
Lack of career progression options
Poor salary
The real-world combination of these varies depending on which firm you work for.
However, junior devs usually have a combination of poor salaries, low-quality colleagues, and a lack of career progress that will keep you in a low-salaried position for a good number of years while you gain experience.
The problem? You won’t have 5 years of experience in a gig like that, you will have the same poor 1 year of experience repeated 5 times. The kicker? These types of jobs don’t prepare you for the next position, as you need to be able to answer LeetCode questions and produce good code for those interview projects.
Why the wrong people are looking to begin a software development job in 2023
The Search For The Easy Train
So, there’s a guy at work who used to work in land surveying (no? Me neither) and by all accounts is weak in technical skills. When speaking to him the origin of this is clear.
I don’t code outside of work time
I’m not one who has questionable opinions about giving your whole life to programming. It doesn’t make sense when much of the job is about understanding the business and working great with those around you.
So, what’s my beef?
Why is he telling me this, in a conversation about dependency management?
They wanted reassurance that he could “get by” in the industry without putting more work than the minimum into their career.
Yet it gets worse.
Look To Retirement
I want to retire by the time I’m 40
In most professional disciplines real competency isn’t reached by 40. Rather than thinking about the debunked 10,000 hours to reach mastery, think about the 10 years of practice (+ 7 years of education) required to become an established doctor and you’re close to the right track.
In this particular anecdote, the career-changer is getting towards their 4th year of work (no training) and considering retirement.
What’s going on?
The wrong developers
I’d say most make enough in software development to make a good living. The idea that most software developers are working for money rather than for the love of the work seems inevitable.
You don’t have to love your work to have a successful career. It does make it somewhat easier.
If you’re counting down the clock in your 20s or 30s, it might be better for you to find a job you actually want to do. We all only have a limited time on this planet, do something you at least can stand for a few decades?
A small proportion of those who get through the poor online courses and stay coding for a few years seems to actually like the job. Give it a decade and they are gone.
The future
Just little bits of history repeating
Remember 2019? I know that it is a hot minute ago. Harassment and gaslighting took place, specifically through Tweets like the following:
The cultural damage went much further. It continued the narrative that “learn to code” is a passport to the good life.
Riches, prestige, and great job benefits follow.
Right?
Who knows what the toxicity of the Internet might make of the forthcoming wave of layoffs?
Conclusion
This article isn’t designed to put you off coding. It is a work explaining why you shouldn’t learn to code without deep consideration and thought. It considers why “learn to code” is damaging the industry and keeping churn and broken dreams at the heart of software development careers.
Let’s give short shrift to those selling easy answers.
They’ll always be a fresh set of new developers next year ready for the salt mines of the poor employers. I wouldn’t be annoyed, but the sharks circle and downright bully new developers in their first gig. People’s lives are at stake, and mental health is important.
AI is one thing. Employing software developers simply after a quick buck is quite another…