“No Layoffs Planned at This Time”

Photo by Shubham Dhage on Unsplash

I knew something was up before the call. The meeting was locked so we could not see the other attendees to the session. I could see the CTO was due to run the call, but it wasn’t clear from the meeting title what exactly we were due to hear.

The words of termination still ring in my ears.

“The majority of these activities will now be completed in India.”

No real warning, no preparation, just a sterile Zoom call to gut the department and hand our work to an offshore contracting firm. But looking back, I wasn’t really surprised at all. The truth is that I’d been looking for an escape in a rather leisurely fashion for some time, but I simply hadn’t braced for impact at the right time.

So, let’s break it down. If you’re working in tech, especially in a large corporate environment, how do you read the writing on the wall? How do you estimate your own expiration date? And most importantly, how do you switch jobs on your own terms before they switch you out?

The Early Warning Signs

Nobody walks into work one morning to a surprise mass layoff unless they ignored the mood music for some time before. Sure, Twitter employees might not have thought it would be that bad but they did have some intuition the party might be over.

Because when you’ve been working at a company for some time you will know that nobody can really keep a secret. A typical tech firm will have been leaking clues for months or even years before the axe hits.

The Leadership Viewpoint of Tech

You might start to feel icy winds of displeasure for your particular business unit, feature team or engineering unit. If you’re working on features that are constantly cut before release, this hints at upcoming issues and potential layoffs in the future.

In the business I worked in, they let the cat out of the bag 6+ months ago. During an engineering all-hands the head of finance called the entire team (hundreds of people) a cost center. I distinctly remember howls of discontent which were met with our finance colleague biting back with “but it’s true”. 

If tech isn’t important to the business, or your work isn’t important to the wider company you are running a risk the company will notice this. When a company notices you aren’t delivering value you might find yourself without a job at all.

Management Disengagement

I struggled to get meetings with my manager for any reason at all. When a family member got sick I couldn’t get five minutes with them to tell them that there might be issues in the future.

I understood that I was not close to an essential part of the business as my performance review meetings were regularly pushed back and cancelled and although these meetings were mandatory, they were sometimes postponed to a diary slot of “never”. 

Hiring Freezes and Budget Cuts

I remember when I worked for CGI and they went through rounds of layoffs and cost-cutting. The stationery cupboard was empty for months at a time, meaning if you required a pen you’d need to bring your own.

You will often see budgets being cut before the first layoffs, and budgets being cut to the bone gives you a fair warning about the potential layoffs coming down the track. Hiring freezes are generally a clear indicator that layoffs are coming.

Language

When your leadership starts replacing words like “growth” and “expansion” with “efficiency,” “profitability,” and “optimization,” that’s your first clue. Sure, every company needs to make money. But when you hear “streamlining operations” and “right-sizing” in leadership speeches, you should know that someone, and it could be you, is about to be sized out.

The Pep Talk

If your management and leadership have to actively tell you that everything is fine, everything is not fine.

I remember my boss telling me that our technical team couldn’t be outsourced, and never would be. Of course, now I’ve been laid off that is exposed for the lie that it is. This was after several previous rounds of layoffs, so I guess it was reasonable difficult to lay me off, but there you go.

Leadership might also start communicating more than they might intend to with the following types of comments.

“We’re committed to supporting our employees.”

“The future is bright for our company.”

“There are no layoffs planned at this time.”

The wording: “at this time” means not today, but maybe tomorrow.

Estimating Your Own Expiration Date

Even if you sense a layoff wave approaching, timing your exit is tricky. If you leave too soon, you might jump into an equally bad situation in a rush (or come across as desperate in interviews). If you wait too long, you might be forced out on someone else’s timeline which might include a period of no income for you.

To mitigate these risks, you would do well to predict your expiration date in any particular company.

Follow the Business, Not the Buzzwords

Look at the company’s financial performance. Are revenue and profits increasing, or is the only thing growing the CEO’s “strategic vision” slides? If the company is profitable but still cutting costs, you might be months away from layoffs. If revenues are sinking, the timeline is accelerating. Account for these factors when deciding your next action.

If your company is public, pay attention to earnings calls. Investors ask direct questions that employees don’t. If executives are dodging questions about cost-cutting or margin improvements, assume the worst.

Attitudes

Look at the attitudes and behaviors around you. That might be their behavior towards the company (how well they work, how long they stay in the office and if they’re accepting calls from recruiters during work time). These are all strong indicators of the health of the company.

You can then look at the attitudes and behaviors towards you. If people start to socially reject you (more than usual) this could indicate bad news for you. Pay attention and listen to the advice of others.

Switch Engagements Before They Switch You

Now for the most important part, what do you do once you see it coming?

My recent actions were too late, too little. That was because I got too comfortable. I should have taken these actions on the way in my career.

Start the Job Search Before You Need It

By the time layoffs happen, you should already be talking to recruiters.

• Take calls even when you’re not actively looking.

• Keep your LinkedIn active and updated.

• Stay in touch with former colleagues who left before you.

If recruiters are not reaching out, ask yourself why. Could your skills be outdated and require you to do a little more, at work or to be studied? Think about what needs to be done.

Diversify Your Skills and Side Income

When layoffs hit, your only income stream shouldn’t be just your job. I’m not a YouTuber who wants you to explore “side hustles”, but your employability is your security.

Consider:

• Freelancing on the side (even just small projects to keep your options open).

• Learning adjacent technologies (so you’re not locked into a dying role).

• Building a network before you need to use it.

If you’re suddenly unemployed, having even a small safety net can buy you the time to find your next opportunity.

Control the Narrative on Your Way Out

If you’re being let go, make sure the exit benefits you.

Don’t sign that severance package (and inevitable NDA) without reading it and really making sure it’s right for you. My package was small (more on that another day) and I did sign away my rights to sue the company in future. However, I calculated that leaving the company at this time (with a payout) would be in my interest and was an opportunity for me.

You might be able to you position this as a career move rather than a layoff, depending on your attitude to truth. I might be out of step with many, but I think “open to work” on LinkedIn isn’t a good state to be in. You’re the most attractive to potential employers when you’re in a job, and you are most able to negotiate a job offer when you have competing offers. Just saying.

Conclusion

I should have acted on the signals my employer gave me sooner. I went to interviews and rejected jobs as not quite right because the benefits were not as good, or the position required two days a week in the office. I rejected jobs for daring to ask me my current salary. I felt that I would lose my job one day, but that day was likely far away.

I needed to be more prepared. I should have seen the layoffs were imminent before I became one of them.

Because in this game you should never assume your job is safe. You should always be ready to interview, and make sure your next career move happens on your own terms, not when you’re forced into them.

So don’t wait for the next “realignment of strategic priorities” to happen to you. Watch for the signals. Estimate your own expiration date. And when the time comes, make your move first.