Software Developers are Aging out. Here are the Facts
The Stack Overflow 2024 Developer Survey age distribution reveals the tech trend that is acting like a ticking time bomb in tech companies.
Developers are predominantly between the ages of 25 and 44, with more than 80% of developers falling within that demographic range. The big question is what will happen when the demographic bulge moves out of the software developer sweet spot?
This is the Stack Overflow survey. This means that we have a predominantly US cohort of self-selecting developers filling out this data — take it apart in the comments section — but that shouldn’t stop us thinking of of demographic changes on software engineering.
A Faulty Pipeline?
In the survey younger developers are underrepresented. AI is here and is making it difficult to get into junior software engineering roles (if they still exist).
So are we doing enough to attract talent into the profession? What if software engineering is becoming a second-tier profession for young talent coming through?
We would expect to see younger developers under 25 years of age to be underrepresented in the demographics of the profession. We think of interviews as raising the quality bar and gatekeeping the profession from those thought of as not good enough at the first bar are not able to enter the industry.
We are starting to see the impact of a selective industry that is not as desirable as it was, and is unwilling and unable to train talent. A few still follow the path of get in and rise up fast, but their numbers are dwindling.
A Fall-Off Over 44
The fall-off in developer representation after 44 is sharp — in this survey only 15.3% of respondents are aged 45 or over.
I don’t think that many software engineers are dropping dead at the age of 45. So why are they suddenly vanishing from the workforce?
Part of it is burnout, as we have a culture that says you’re not a software professional if you aren’t working 60-hour weeks. Some of it is movement into people management positions.
More worrying though is the myth that coding is a young person’s sport. People buy into the idea that only the young can code well and produce great software — by the time you’re 30 you have no business programming (let alone by the grand age of 45).
The Ticking Time Bomb
Since we have fewer developers coming into the profession who exactly is going to replace these developers?
I’m starting to wonder if the plan chosen by the industry en masse is just to let AI take over completely.
On one hand I think the machines are better suited to “enjoy” daily standups and endless code reviews, but who is going to make sure that the software produced isn’t the product of a hallucination (i.e. made up and will not compile).
Our Solution
I keep saying this. Training, support and mentorship is the way the industry needs to go. It’s the only way that we are going to develop talent and create pathways to great developers in the future, and the types of developers who are not easily going to be replaced by AI.
Conclusion
The time-bomb ticking on our own careers is a problem. It feels like there is a hunger games style battle for software developers to get into people management before the guillotine comes down on our software careers — at the age of 45. That’s a problem.
Another problem is the fact that fewer people are wanting to be software developers. In the future we are going to struggle to find senior developers. That’s a problem that’s starting now.
So I’ll say it again. Why aren’t we improving the software developers we have, and welcoming those into the profession who have a real interest in the work? Just a thought.